Bitcoin December Fed Hike Odds Reach 84% as Equity Funds Draw $266B

Bitcoin traded near $74,200 on November 10 as Bitcoin December Fed rate hike odds reached 84.4%. Global equity funds, meanwhile, took in $266 billion over four weeks. BTC was down 1.4% since midnight UTC, according to CoinDesk.

Equity-fund inflows and rising rate expectations are both in focus for crypto traders. The 84.4% figure reflects market pricing, not a Fed decision: officials held rates at their October meeting.

Bitcoin trails a record $266 billion equity-fund rush

Global equity funds drew a record $266 billion over four weeks, according to BeInCrypto, citing the Kobeissi Letter. The pace picked up last week, when funds attracted $89 billion worldwide, including $32 billion for U.S. equity funds.

Since 2020, U.S. equity funds have received $2.1 trillion, the Kobeissi Letter said. Of that, $1.5 trillion arrived since the start of 2024. Emerging-market Asia equity funds took in $470 billion over the longer period, while European equity funds saw $426 billion in outflows.

Bitcoin also lagged the Nasdaq rebound on Friday. The figures show a divergence in fund flows, but do not establish that equity buying drove Bitcoin lower.

Bitcoin rate-hike odds point to a possible December shift

CME FedWatch put the odds of a quarter-point increase on December 9 at 84.4%, with no probability assigned to a rate cut. Traders were pricing in a 25-basis-point hike that would take the target range to 4.00%-4.25%.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller backed a higher rate even if inflation cooled. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading, he said, could warrant a half-point increase.

The Fed held its target range at 3.75%-4% on October 28 in a 10-to-2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, favoring a quarter-point hike at that meeting.

Bitcoin holders face ETF outflows and higher-rate pressure

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $1.28 billion in net outflows from November 2 to 6. Higher rates can make Treasury returns more attractive than Bitcoin, which pays no yield, adding potential pressure if rate expectations rise.

The 84.4% probability is a market forecast, and incoming inflation data could shift it. Longer-term holders are also watching ETF outflows and Bitcoin’s lag behind equity benchmarks.

October CPI and Treasury auction are the next signals

The U.S. October Consumer Price Index report was due Tuesday, November 10. Forecasts called for headline inflation to rise 0.3% month over month, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was expected to increase 0.2%.

Annual comparisons for October were unavailable because the prior year’s government shutdown prevented price collection. September’s annual headline and core inflation readings were 3.7% and 2.6%, respectively.

A $42 billion 10-year Treasury note auction was also due later in the week. A softer CPI reading could lower expectations for a December hike. A hotter result could prompt traders to reassess the odds and the pressure on Bitcoin.

FAQ

When is the Fed rate decision markets are pricing in?

The expected decision date is December 9, 2026. Traders were pricing a quarter-point increase, but the Fed has not made that decision.

What did Governor Christopher Waller say about rates?

Waller backed a higher rate even if inflation cooled. He said a hotter-than-expected inflation reading could warrant a half-point increase.

How much did U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lose from November 2 to 6?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows during that period. Higher rates can make Treasury returns more attractive than Bitcoin.

When was the October U.S. CPI report due?

The report was due Tuesday, November 10. Forecasts called for headline inflation to rise 0.3% month over month and core prices to increase 0.2%.

Why can higher interest rates weigh on Bitcoin?

Higher rates can make Treasury returns more attractive than a non-yielding asset such as Bitcoin. That can affect how investors allocate capital, but it does not determine Bitcoin’s price on its own.

This article is for information only and is not financial advice.