Hot October U.S. CPI Sends Bitcoin and Ether Lower

Consumer prices climbed 0.4% in October, exceeding the anticipated 0.3% rise, according to the U.S. Consumer Price Index report. Core CPI also exceeded projections by increasing 0.3%, leaving Americans to evaluate the possibility of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December.

Following the publication, Bitcoin and other risk-oriented assets experienced sell-offs, prompting a rapid wave of liquidations for leveraged cryptocurrency traders.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the data on November 10, 2026. The report left out annual inflation metrics because the agency failed to compile October 2025 pricing data during the prior government shutdown.

October U.S. CPI rose faster than expected while core inflation stayed firm

Headline and core figures both topped forecasts

Compared to September, headline CPI grew by 0.4%, which was slower than the 0.6% increase observed the month before, but still above the 0.3% projection. Core CPI, which leaves out volatile food and energy costs, grew 0.3%, mirroring September’s rate while surpassing the predicted 0.2% mark.

Data from BeInCrypto shows this was the third month in a row that core prices climbed by 0.3%. Although headline inflation softened relative to September, underlying cost pressures remained stubborn.

The release landed at 8:30 a.m. ET

The BLS unveiled the October data on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. On Binance, Bitcoin shifted between $74,770 and $73,525 during the five minutes immediately following the announcement, demonstrating extreme volatility within a tight timeframe.

The digital asset concluded that five-minute period near $73,709, reflecting a 0.9% loss, prior to rebounding to roughly $73,918 by 8:36 a.m. ET. Although the sell-off intensified precisely when the figures dropped, Bitcoin was already trending downward ahead of the release.

Ether dropped 1.9% around the same time, sliding below $2,050 according to various reports. Bitcoin similarly dipped under $74,000, with both cryptocurrencies touching 11-week lows.

Why the report had no annual CPI rate

Because the government shutdown halted data collection in October 2025, the BLS lacked a historical baseline for comparison. Consequently, the agency omitted year-over-year headline and core inflation figures from the October release.

Prior to the announcement, economists projected annual jumps of 3.9% for headline CPI and 2.8% for core CPI. Because those figures remained unverified forecasts rather than official October outcomes, the monthly changes served as the report’s primary inflation metrics.

The BLS published the figures as the Fed weighs its next move

The statistics agency and the central bank have different roles

While the BLS compiles and shares consumer price metrics, the Federal Reserve dictates monetary policy. Ahead of the upcoming December rate decision, central bankers will weigh these October inflation numbers alongside the broader economic strains experienced by borrowers.

CoinDesk reported that Fed Governor Chris Waller stated overnight that the central bank ought to increase interest rates next month even if the CPI figures came in weak. He also suggested the Fed could entertain a 50-basis-point adjustment if inflation showed significant strength.

In October, the Fed maintained its benchmark rate within the 3.75% to 4% range. At the time, Chair Kevin Warsh attributed tighter financial conditions largely to AI-driven demand, introducing yet another variable for policymakers to evaluate in December.

Rate-hike expectations were already elevated

Traders had already priced in a rate increase for December prior to the report, with certain estimates placing the probability as high as 84%. A December hike was already central to investor planning.

The October report subsequently introduced a monthly headline figure higher than expected and a core index surpassing estimates. The Fed retains sufficient time to review additional economic reports, including upcoming inflation updates, before its formal meeting.

Elevated borrowing expenditures placed added strain on crypto investments. Prior to the CPI data, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds had experienced $1.28 billion in outflows as expectations for a December rate increase grew, compounding existing market declines for crypto holdings.

The shutdown left October 2025 out of the inflation comparison

A missing base interrupted the year-over-year series

The government shutdown active at the time prevented the BLS from gathering October 2025 price samples. Deprived of that baseline, the agency could not formulate its standard annual CPI calculations for October 2026.

Both core and headline annual indicators were impacted. Month-over-month metrics remained intact, showing a 0.4% rise for headline inflation and a 0.3% gain for core prices in October.

September gives the available month-to-month comparison

Headline CPI advanced 0.6% during September, contrasted with a 0.3% increase for core CPI. While October’s headline growth cooled, the core index held steady at a 0.3% monthly rate for the third consecutive time.

This dynamic influenced the ongoing policy discussion. Headline inflation moderated relative to September, whereas core prices climbed faster than anticipated to mark another monthly 0.3% advance.

Core prices had climbed 0.2% in July and remained flat in June before mounting three back-to-back 0.3% gains. Although momentum accelerated relative to those earlier months, the absence of an annual benchmark restricted what the October report could reveal concerning longer-term yearly trends.

Markets repriced risk after the inflation release

Bitcoin, equities and Treasury yields moved lower and higher, respectively

Following the data release, Bitcoin extended its losses while U.S. stock index futures dropped. Conversely, Treasury yields pushed upward: the 10-year yield climbed 6.5 basis points to reach 4.93%, and the two-year yield advanced 14 basis points to hit 4.69%.

Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1.15%, and S&P 500 futures declined 0.5% after shifting negative. The more substantial increase in the two-year yield indicated that traders were factoring in a small chance of a 50-basis-point Fed adjustment in December, following Waller’s remarks regarding strong inflation.

Traders adjusted positions in anticipation of stricter monetary policy. Elevated yields improve the returns generated by cash and government bonds, creating headwinds for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold.

Leveraged crypto longs were liquidated

Roughly $200 million worth of cryptocurrency long positions were liquidated during the five minutes immediately following the report. Traders speculating on higher prices faced mandatory liquidations as Bitcoin and Ether slumped within the release window.

Data from OANDA showed that spot gold dipped 0.6% to approximately $4,048 an ounce during this same interval, after briefly touching $4,040, and hovered near that range by 8:36 a.m. ET. While the inflation surprise and monetary outlook dictated immediate market shifts, each asset faced individual structural pressures as well.

Some weakness manifested before the official publication. Bitcoin traded near $75,000 earlier that Tuesday and had already dropped 1.85% over the 24-hour period leading up to Monday morning, meaning the report simply accelerated a downward trend that was already underway.

Food and energy rose as housing inflation cooled slightly

Food costs picked up from September

Food prices expanded 0.5% in October following a flat reading in September. Grocery expenses rose 0.4%, and dining out costs increased 0.5%, contributing to the month’s inflationary pressures.

Energy and gasoline figures diverged by measure

Energy expenses advanced 0.7%, while seasonally adjusted gasoline prices went up 1.0%. Gasoline was up 37.4% compared to the prior year, marking one of the few available annual comparisons because the BLS possessed a usable historical dataset for that specific series.

Unadjusted gasoline prices dropped 0.7% over the course of October. Seasonal adjustments and raw calculations evaluated the month differently, though gasoline retained an annual comparison point even without an overarching CPI rate.

Housing prices rose more slowly

Housing—the largest single component of the index—grew 0.3% in October, marking a deceleration from September’s 0.4% increase. This softer pace offered some relief against rising food and energy expenses.

October’s monthly readings exceeded the cited forecast ranges

Every bank estimate cited for headline CPI was lower

The 0.4% monthly headline CPI increase outpaced the 0.3% consensus prediction. Pre-release financial institution estimates referenced in coverage varied from Morgan Stanley’s 0.19% up to Wells Fargo’s 0.28%, all falling short of the actual outcome.

Core CPI also came in above analyst calls

Core CPI climbed 0.3%, compared to a 0.2% projection. Cited bank estimates ranged between Goldman Sachs’ 0.16% and Jefferies’ 0.24%, both beneath the recorded monthly jump.

The discrepancy between forecasts and actual results sharpened the immediate implications for interest rate expectations. However, lacking year-for-year headline or core rates, the announcement provided only a limited perspective on annual inflation dynamics.

Other inflation readings and the December decision are next

Energy provided a counterpoint to the hotter headline

Growth in energy prices decelerated from September’s 5.2% rate, and unadjusted gasoline prices declined 0.7%. Given that Bitcoin had already pulled back 1.85% over the 24 hours leading into Monday morning, its post-release drop extended a downward trend already in motion.

Treasury supply and producer prices follow

A 10-year Treasury auction was slated for the same day as part of a wider $125 billion government debt sale. This auction placed public borrowing expenses into focus alongside warmer inflation metrics and rising Treasury yields.

Producer price statistics were scheduled for release on Friday. Economists predicted that October core personal consumption expenditures—the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric for inflation—would register at 0.23%, though this was merely an estimate rather than a published metric within the October CPI publication.

Both occurrences presented near-term tests for bond market participants. The auction aimed to test investor appetite for government debt amid elevated yields, while the impending inflation figures offered policymakers additional insight ahead of their meeting.

The Fed’s December meeting is the next policy milestone

The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December represents the next major policy milestone on the financial calendar. While October’s warmer-than-anticipated monthly figures complicate the debate, the absence of annual comparisons and upcoming inflation publications leave the policy trajectory uncertain.

Presently, the economic landscape remains mixed: headline inflation moderated relative to September, yet core inflation persisted at 0.3% for a third consecutive month. The Fed intends to review upcoming producer price reports and additional inflation indicators prior to rendering a decision in December.

FAQ

When was October CPI released?

The BLS published the October 2026 CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 10. Markets reacted within minutes of the release.

How much did consumer prices rise in October?

Headline CPI increased 0.4% compared to September, while core CPI rose 0.3%. Both metrics surpassed forecasts gathered prior to the release.

Why did the report omit annual CPI rates?

The BLS could not collect October 2025 price samples during the government shutdown, leaving the agency without an October 2025 comparative baseline. Consequently, no year-over-year headline or core rate was published for October 2026.

How much did core CPI exceed its forecast?

Core CPI advanced 0.3% on a monthly basis against a projected 0.2%. Prior bank forecasts cited ahead of publication ranged from 0.16% to 0.24%.

How much crypto was liquidated after the release?

Roughly $200 million in cryptocurrency long positions were liquidated within five minutes. Both Bitcoin and Ether experienced declines during this release window.

What inflation data comes next?

Producer price reports were scheduled for Friday, alongside economist projections of 0.23% for October core PCE. The Federal Reserve’s December rate meeting serves as the next significant policy event.

This article is for information only and is not financial advice.