Uniswap price forecast: UNI risks 15% drop as long liquidations build

Key takeaways

• Uniswap pulled back after reaching an intraweek peak of about $10.95.
• The weekly RSI for UNI has climbed to roughly 73, entering overbought territory.
• A potential market correction might target $7.83, while breaking that support could test $6.91.

Uniswap (UNI) faces a possible retreat toward $7.80 over the next several weeks following a recent rally that stalled near major resistance.

An overbought weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), a failure to push past the $11.51 Fibonacci mark, and a heavy buildup of leveraged long positions beneath the current price all suggest an increased likelihood of a downward correction.

UNI exchanged hands near $9.11 on September 25 after touching an intraweek high of approximately $10.95. Although its broader technical foundation has strengthened, the digital asset may need additional cooling before attempting another sustained upward push.

UNI Rally Loses Momentum Below $11.50

Uniswap’s recent recovery carried prices close to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement milestone at roughly $11.51. This zone served as a critical upside objective following the token’s breakout above a descending long-term resistance trendline.

Yet, the token failed to reach or pierce that barrier definitively. Sellers stepped in around $10.95, dragging the price back down toward $9.11 and leaving a prominent upper wick on the developing weekly candlestick.

A lengthy upper wick usually signifies that buyers pushed prices upward during the session but were unable to maintain those gains. While not a definitive reversal signal, this pattern points to growing selling pressure near recent highs.

This rejection carries extra significance because it happened near substantial Fibonacci resistance. Unless UNI manages to recapture the $10.95–$11.51 range, market participants may view the recent surge as a failed breakout attempt rather than the start of a prolonged rally.

Overbought RSI raises correction risk

Momentum gauges also indicate that Uniswap’s advance could be running too hot. The weekly RSI for UNI has climbed to approximately 73, pushing past the standard overbought threshold of 70.

A high RSI does not guarantee an immediate sell-off, as strong crypto trends can sustain overbought conditions for extended stretches. Nevertheless, previous sharp weekly surges for UNI have frequently led to multi-week corrections or consolidation periods as traders take profits.

The mix of an elevated RSI, resistance close to $11.51, and the recent upper wick heightens the probability of a near-term pullback.

The primary downside technical objective is the 200-week exponential moving average, sitting near $7.83. A slide from $9.21 down to that level would equal a roughly 15% correction.

Should buyers successfully defend the $7.80–$7.85 zone, UNI could form a higher low and gear up for another run at $11.50. However, losing this support level would bring the 100-week EMA near $6.91 into focus.

Despite these short-term headwinds, Uniswap’s broader charts look healthier than earlier in the year. UNI remains positioned above multiple vital weekly moving averages after breaking past a descending long-term resistance line. Consequently, a drop to $7.83 could act as a support retest rather than the onset of a deeper bearish trend.

Derivatives market dynamics introduce another layer of downward vulnerability. Data from CoinGlass reveals a dense cluster of leveraged long positions centered around $8.87 on the Binance UNI/USDT trading pair.

Roughly $5.16 million in liquidation leverage sits right around that price point. If UNI dips toward $8.87, the movement could expose an estimated $10.35 million in cumulative long liquidations.

When leveraged long trades get liquidated, exchanges automatically close them by selling the underlying asset. A rapid cascade of forced closures can accelerate downward momentum and provoke further liquidations at lower price tiers.

This mechanism positions $8.87 as a potential liquidity magnet. A minor slide in that direction could escalate into a more pronounced drop if forced sales overwhelm organic buying interest.

The liquidation heatmap additionally highlights short-position liquidity residing above the market, meaning an unexpected price surge could still spark a short squeeze. However, the greater volume of vulnerable longs sitting just below current prices makes downside risks more urgent in the immediate future.

Can UNI recover toward $11.50?

Uniswap’s next directional move may hinge on whether buyers can safeguard the $8.87 liquidity zone and the stronger technical support located around $7.83.

Successfully defending these thresholds would maintain the improving weekly structure, keeping UNI primed for another test of $11.50. A decisive weekly close above that barrier would diminish the likelihood of a correction and pave the way for loftier goals.

On the flip side, a liquidation-fueled drop beneath $8.87 would elevate the chances of sliding toward the 200-week EMA at $7.83. If that safety net fails, the 100-week EMA near $6.91 becomes the next major support zone.

At present, UNI’s longer-term recovery remains intact, though overbought momentum and overcrowded leveraged positions imply that increased volatility—and potentially a 15% pullback—could materialize first.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Uniswap at risk of a 15% drop?

Uniswap faces a potential 15% correction due to an overbought weekly RSI of 73, a failed test of Fibonacci resistance around $11.51, and a large concentration of leveraged long positions sitting just below the current market price.

What are the key support levels to watch for UNI?

The primary downside target is the 200-week exponential moving average at approximately $7.83. If that support fails, the next significant level is the 100-week EMA near $6.91.

How do leveraged long positions affect Uniswap’s price?

A significant cluster of about $5.16 million in liquidation leverage is concentrated around $8.87 on Binance. If the price falls toward this level, forced liquidations can trigger rapid selling pressure and accelerate the downward move.

What would it take for UNI to resume its rally?

To resume its upward trajectory toward $11.50, UNI needs to defend its lower support zones around $8.87 and $7.83, followed by a decisive weekly close above major resistance.